Election Brief - Newfoundland and Labrador to welcome new majority government
PC leader Tony Wakeham will be Newfoundland and Labrador’s 16th Premier, outperforming expectations to form a majority government
*based on results as of 11:30PM October 14, 2025
While there was general consensus that the Newfoundland and Labrador provincial election was a tight race between the governing Liberals and the Progressive Conservative parties, a PC majority was an unlikely outcome and a stretch goal for the party. However, party leader and Premier-elect Tony Wakeham, delivered enough seats to secure a majority government.
Party Seats Seat growth
Progressive Conservatives 21 +7
Liberals 15 -6
NDP 2 no change
Independent 2 -1
Although there were multiple close races, none warrant an automatic recount. Liberal Leader John Hogan has congratulated Premier-elect Wakeham and committed to supporting a smooth transition of government.
Rural-urban divide
Consistent with trends across much of Canada, a significant amount of Liberal support came from urban areas, with PCs support strong in rural areas. Of note, PC support also remained fairly strong in sub-urban areas. Support for the PCs provincially is also fairly aligned with the province’s support for Conservatives federally in the April 2025 federal election where the Conservatives gained two additional NL seats in the House of Commons, for a total of 3 (out of 7).
This rural-urban divide is most visible when comparing the percentage of votes to percentage of seats won by the PCs and Liberals. The PCs securing a majority government with less than a percentage more of the total vote reflects the surgical approach to their campaign, targeting districts – and sometimes communities within those districts – to maximize seat count on election day.
Party Seat % Votes %
Progressive Conservative 52.5% 44.3%
Liberal 37.5% 43.5%
NDP 5.0% 8.3%
Independent 5.0% 3.9%
A government transition
Platform priority areas - Premier-elect Wakeham’s campaign was focused on three key priority areas: lower taxes, better healthcare, and safer communities. Expect his government’s early actions and announcements to be tied to these three areas, as well as an independent review of the memorandum of understanding with Hydro Quebec on the Churchill Falls hydroelectric project, including additional hydroelectric development of the Churchill River. The PC costed platform is available online here.
New cabinet members - After a decade of Liberal governments in Newfoundland and Labrador, Premier-elect Wakeham will have a team of first-time Ministers. In fact, only 1 of the 21 elected MHAs has been a provincial Minister; Lake Melville MHA-elect Keith Russell, who had a brief stint as Minister under former PC Premier Paul Davis, but has been out of provincial politics for a decade. While there is speculation about re-elected and well-known MHAs who will likely be called to sit in Cabinet, those decisions are not yet made. It could be days or weeks until a cabinet is announced. Similarly, Liberal MHAs will be fulfilling the opposition role for the first time.
Caucus management – Managing expectations, priorities, and views of caucus is always a challenge with a slim-margin majority. With 21 elected MHAs, losing even 1 member of the party would result in a minority government so Wakeham and his advisors will need to make decisions and appointments carefully to maintain caucus unity. For NDP-elected MHAs Jim Dinn and Sheilagh O’Leary, as well as independent MHAs Paul Lane and Eddie Joyce, a slim majority maintains heightened influence
What else to watch for
Early engagement with industries, unions, and other organizations – Organizations required to work with the government of the day – including associations representing various industries across the province - have been working with a Liberal government for the last decade. While there would be engagement with opposition parties, there will be many organizations and associations requesting the opportunity to brief the new Premier and his team. There will be a need to build new relationships and establish trust between the incoming Premier/his team and these groups. Expect advocacy efforts to increase as the new government takes the reigns.
Addressing urban-rural disparity in voting patterns – In his victory speech, incoming Premier Wakeham emphasized that he will be a Premier for all Newfoundlanders and Labradorians, not just those who voted for his party. His government will need to balance the priorities and expectations of the mostly rural voters who gave him a majority government, with those of urban areas where the bulk of the population and economic engine of the province resides.
Issues that will demand more attention - Some of the province’s biggest challenges didn’t receive much attention during the election campaign.
The province’s ballooning debt – currently more than $47B – and the servicing of that debt being the province’s second largest expense, took a back seat during the election campaign. With a new government eager to make changes to align with their priorities and promises, how they contribute to or reduce that debt will likely attract more attention going forward.
Immigration was also not a hot topic during the campaign. At the same time, the province’s aging demographic and workforce struggles will require a focus on recruiting and retaining new people to call Newfoundland and Labrador home.
Outgoing Premier John Hogan’s future in politics – Anytime a party with a strong chance of forming government does not win government, there will be speculation at the future of leader of the party. Some will wonder how long outgoing Premier John Hogan will stay on as party leader, even though his concession speech was conciliatory, forward-looking and showed no signs of plans to step away from elected politics.
Relationship with Ottawa – For the past two decades, the Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador has been from the same party as the Prime Minister of Canada. Now in 2025, the province will be governed by an opposing party. As many challenges and opportunities facing the province involve areas of federal jurisdiction, it is worth paying attention to the dynamic and relationship Premier-elect Wakeham establishes with the Prime Minister and his team, who have a minority government. Wakeham will need to balance this with his relationship and support from federal Conservatives, especially given federal support for major projects and the importance for Newfoundland and Labrador’s economy for its oil and hydro projects to be part of that federal push.
Interprovincial Relations - During an especially turbulent time for Canada as it faces US tariffs and threats of a trade war, Canada’s Premiers have been meeting more frequently with the Prime Minister and with one another. Time will tell how Premier-elect Wakeham will integrate into that group, including what alliances and relationships he will build with other Premiers. Of note, some of his most senior campaign staff, were also campaign staff for other Conservative Premiers.
Quebec Reaction - Although the success of the PC campaign indicates that the Churchill Falls MOU wasn’t the most important topic for voters in this province, officials and hydro leaders in Quebec were certainly paying attention to the election results. Many will be paying close attention to reaction in Quebec as an indicator of the future of that agreement and the state of future negotiations under a new government.
More transitions to come - A new government after a decade is certain to be followed by other shuffling and transitions. This will happen immediately with political staff, but should also be expected by appointments and hires of individuals with close ties and relationships with the outgoing Liberal government.
Guidance and support
Organizations and associations have been liaising with a Liberal government in Newfoundland and Labrador for a full decade. A new government will require increased engagement, understanding of a new government’s priorities and style, and building deep understanding and trust with new decision makers and their advisors. Cove Public Affairs is your partner government relations advice and support during the transition.
